Fatigue and vigilance in medical experts detecting breast cancer.

An abundance of laboratory-based experiments has described a vigilance decrement of reducing accuracy to detect targets with time on task, but there are few real-world studies, none of which have previously controlled the environment to control for bias. We describe accuracy in clinical practice for 360 experts who examined >1 million women's mammograms for signs of cancer, whilst controlling for potential biases. The vigilance decrement pattern was not observed. Instead, test accuracy improved over time, through a reduction in false alarms and an increase in speed, with no significant change in sensitivity. The multiple-decision model explains why experts miss targets in low prevalence settings through a change in decision threshold and search quit threshold and propose it should be adapted to explain these observed patterns of accuracy with time on task. What is typically thought of as standard and robust research findings in controlled laboratory settings may not directly apply to real-world environments and instead large, controlled studies in relevant environments are needed.

Optimising breast cancer screening reading: blinding the second reader to the first reader's decisions.

OBJECTIVES: In breast cancer screening, two readers separately examine each woman's mammograms for signs of cancer. We examined whether preventing the two readers from seeing each other's decisions (blinding) affects behaviour and outcomes. METHODS: This cohort study used data from the CO-OPS breast-screening trial (1,119,191 women from 43 screening centres in England) where all discrepant readings were arbitrated. Multilevel models were fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo to measure whether reader 2 conformed to the decisions of reader 1 when they were not blinded, and the effect of blinding on overall rates of recall for further tests and cancer detection. Differences in positive predictive value (PPV) were assessed using Pearson's chi-squared test. RESULTS: When reader 1 recalls, the probability of reader 2 also recalling was higher when not blinded than when blinded, suggesting readers may be influenced by the other's decision. Overall, women were less likely to be recalled when reader 2 was blinded (OR 0.923; 95% credible interval 0.864, 0.986), with no clear pattern in cancer detection rate (OR 1.029; 95% credible interval 0.970, 1.089; Bayesian p value 0.832). PPV was 22.1% for blinded versus 20.6% for not blinded (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that when not blinded, reader 2 is influenced by reader 1's decisions to recall (alliterative bias) which would result in bypassing arbitration and negate some of the benefits of double-reading. We found a relationship between blinding the second reader and slightly higher PPV of breast cancer screening, although this analysis may be confounded by other centre characteristics. KEY POINTS: • In Europe, it is recommended that breast screening mammograms are analysed by two readers but there is little evidence on the effect of 'blinding' the readers so they cannot see each other's decisions. • We found evidence that when the second reader is not blinded, they are more likely to agree with a recall decision from the first reader and less likely to make an independent judgement (alliterative error). This may reduce overall accuracy through bypassing arbitration. • This observational study suggests an association between blinding the second reader and higher positive predictive value of screening, but this may be confounded by centre characteristics.

Use of artificial intelligence for image analysis in breast cancer screening programmes: systematic review of test accuracy.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the accuracy of artificial intelligence (AI) for the detection of breast cancer in mammography screening practice. DESIGN: Systematic review of test accuracy studies. DATA SOURCES: Medline, Embase, Web of Science, and Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews from 1 January 2010 to 17 May 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Studies reporting test accuracy of AI algorithms, alone or in combination with radiologists, to detect cancer in women's digital mammograms in screening practice, or in test sets. Reference standard was biopsy with histology or follow-up (for screen negative women). Outcomes included test accuracy and cancer type detected. STUDY SELECTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two reviewers independently assessed articles for inclusion and assessed the methodological quality of included studies using the QUality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 (QUADAS-2) tool. A single reviewer extracted data, which were checked by a second reviewer. Narrative data synthesis was performed. RESULTS: Twelve studies totalling 131 822 screened women were included. No prospective studies measuring test accuracy of AI in screening practice were found. Studies were of poor methodological quality. Three retrospective studies compared AI systems with the clinical decisions of the original radiologist, including 79 910 women, of whom 1878 had screen detected cancer or interval cancer within 12 months of screening. Thirty four (94%) of 36 AI systems evaluated in these studies were less accurate than a single radiologist, and all were less accurate than consensus of two or more radiologists. Five smaller studies (1086 women, 520 cancers) at high risk of bias and low generalisability to the clinical context reported that all five evaluated AI systems (as standalone to replace radiologist or as a reader aid) were more accurate than a single radiologist reading a test set in the laboratory. In three studies, AI used for triage screened out 53%, 45%, and 50% of women at low risk but also 10%, 4%, and 0% of cancers detected by radiologists. CONCLUSIONS: Current evidence for AI does not yet allow judgement of its accuracy in breast cancer screening programmes, and it is unclear where on the clinical pathway AI might be of most benefit. AI systems are not sufficiently specific to replace radiologist double reading in screening programmes. Promising results in smaller studies are not replicated in larger studies. Prospective studies are required to measure the effect of AI in clinical practice. Such studies will require clear stopping rules to ensure that AI does not reduce programme specificity. STUDY REGISTRATION: Protocol registered as PROSPERO CRD42020213590.

Testing strategies for Lynch syndrome in people with endometrial cancer: systematic reviews and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Lynch syndrome is an inherited genetic condition that is associated with an increased risk of certain cancers. The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence has recommended that people with colorectal cancer are tested for Lynch syndrome. Routine testing for Lynch syndrome among people with endometrial cancer is not currently conducted. OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the evidence on the test accuracy of immunohistochemistry- and microsatellite instability-based strategies to detect Lynch syndrome among people who have endometrial cancer, and the clinical effectiveness and the cost-effectiveness of testing for Lynch syndrome among people who have been diagnosed with endometrial cancer. DATA SOURCES: Searches were conducted in the following databases, from inception to August 2019 - MEDLINE ALL, EMBASE (both via Ovid), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (both via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects, Health Technology Assessment Database (both via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index, Conference Proceedings Citation Index - Science (both via Web of Science), PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, EconPapers (Research Papers in Economics) and School of Health and Related Research Health Utilities Database. The references of included studies and relevant systematic reviews were also checked and experts on the team were consulted. REVIEW METHODS: Eligible studies included people with endometrial cancer who were tested for Lynch syndrome using immunohistochemistry- and/or microsatellite instability-based testing [with or without mutL homologue 1 (MLH1) promoter hypermethylation testing], with Lynch syndrome diagnosis being established though germline testing of normal (non-tumour) tissue for constitutional mutations in mismatch repair. The risk of bias in studies was assessed using the Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies-2 tool, the Consolidated Health Economic Reporting Standards and the Philips' checklist. Two reviewers independently conducted each stage of the review. A meta-analysis of test accuracy was not possible because of the number and heterogeneity of studies. A narrative summary of test accuracy results was provided, reporting test accuracy estimates and presenting forest plots. The economic model constituted a decision tree followed by Markov models for the impact of colorectal and endometrial surveillance, and aspirin prophylaxis with a lifetime time horizon. RESULTS: The clinical effectiveness search identified 3308 studies; 38 studies of test accuracy were included. (No studies of clinical effectiveness of endometrial cancer surveillance met the inclusion criteria.) Four test accuracy studies compared microsatellite instability with immunohistochemistry. No clear difference in accuracy between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability was observed. There was some evidence that specificity of immunohistochemistry could be improved with the addition of methylation testing. There was high concordance between immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability. The economic model indicated that all testing strategies, compared with no testing, were cost-effective at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. Immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing was the most cost-effective strategy, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of £9420 per quality-adjusted life-year. The second most cost-effective strategy was immunohistochemistry testing alone, but incremental analysis produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio exceeding £130,000. Results were robust across all scenario analyses. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ranged from £5690 to £20,740; only removing the benefits of colorectal cancer surveillance produced an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio in excess of the £20,000 willingness-to-pay threshold. A sensitivity analysis identified the main cost drivers of the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio as percentage of relatives accepting counselling and prevalence of Lynch syndrome in the population. A probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year, a 0.93 probability that immunohistochemistry with MLH1 promoter hypermethylation testing is cost-effective, compared with no testing. LIMITATIONS: The systematic review excluded grey literature, studies written in non-English languages and studies for which the reference standard could not be established. Studies were included when Lynch syndrome was diagnosed by genetic confirmation of constitutional variants in the four mismatch repair genes (i.e. MLH1, mutS homologue 2, mutS homologue 6 and postmeiotic segregation increased 2). Variants of uncertain significance were reported as per the studies. There were limitations in the economic model around uncertainty in the model parameters and a lack of modelling of the potential harms of gynaecological surveillance and specific pathway modelling of genetic testing for somatic mismatch repair mutations. CONCLUSION: The economic model suggests that testing women with endometrial cancer for Lynch syndrome is cost-effective, but that results should be treated with caution because of uncertain model inputs. FUTURE WORK: Randomised controlled trials could provide evidence on the effect of earlier intervention on outcomes and the balance of benefits and harms of gynaecological cancer surveillance. Follow-up of negative cases through disease registers could be used to determine false negative cases. STUDY REGISTRATION: This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42019147185. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Evidence Synthesis programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 25, No. 42. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Lynch syndrome is an inherited condition that is caused by a problem in the genes. People who have Lynch syndrome have a higher risk of some types of cancer (such as bowel and womb cancers) than people who do not have it. Identifying Lynch syndrome could stop cancers developing, lead to earlier treatment for cancers and help to find other family members who might have it. Currently, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends testing for Lynch syndrome in people who have bowel cancer. Our aim was to investigate whether or not we should test for Lynch syndrome in women with womb cancer, and their relatives. We investigated two main tests: immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability. There was no clear evidence that one of these tests is better than the other. There is some evidence that both tests are reasonably accurate. There was no good-quality evidence about whether or not treating women with Lynch syndrome with extra cancer screening and aspirin improves their outcomes. We used the best evidence available in our economic model, but it was at high risk of bias. The economic model suggested that testing women with endometrial cancer for Lynch syndrome is cost-effective. The best test in the model was immunohistochemistry followed by methylation testing. We are unsure of these results because of the low quality of evidence available.

Newborn Screening for Long-Chain 3-Hydroxyacyl-CoA Dehydrogenase and Mitochondrial Trifunctional Protein Deficiencies Using Acylcarnitines Measurement in Dried Blood Spots-A Systematic Review of Test Accuracy.

Background: Long-chain 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase (LCHAD) and mitochondrial trifunctional protein (MTP) deficiencies are rare autosomal recessive fatty acid ß-oxidation disorders. Their clinical presentations are variable, and premature death is common. They are included in newborn blood spot screening programs in many countries around the world. The current process of screening, through the measurement of acylcarnitines (a metabolic by-product) in dried blood spots with tandem mass spectrometry, is subject to uncertainty regarding test accuracy. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of literature published up to 19th June 2018. We included studies that investigated newborn screening for LCHAD or MTP deficiencies by tandem mass spectrometry of acylcarnitines in dried blood spots. The reference standards were urine organic acids, blood acylcarnitine profiles, enzyme analysis in cultured fibroblasts or lymphocytes, mutation analysis, or at least 10-year follow-up. The outcomes of interest were sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV). Assessment of titles, abstracts, and full-text papers and quality appraisal were carried out independently by two reviewers. One reviewer extracted study data. This was checked by a second reviewer. Results: Ten studies provided data on test accuracy. LCHAD or MTP deficiencies were identified in 23 babies. No cases of LCHAD/MTP deficiencies were identified in four studies. PPV ranged from 0% (zero true positives and 28 false positives from 276,565 babies screened) to 100% (13 true positives and zero false positives from 2,037,824 babies screened). Sensitivity, specificity, and NPV could not be calculated as there was no systematic follow-up of babies who screened negative. Conclusions: Test accuracy estimates of screening for LCHAD and MTP deficiencies with tandem mass spectrometry measurement of acylcarnitines in dried blood were variable in terms of PPVs. Screening methods (including markers and thresholds) varied between studies, and sensitivity, specificity, and NPVs are unknown.

Testing for lynch syndrome in people with endometrial cancer using immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability-based testing strategies - A systematic review of test accuracy.

BACKGROUND: Lynch syndrome is an inherited genetic condition that is associated with an increased risk of cancer, including endometrial and colorectal cancer. We assessed the test accuracy of immunohistochemistry and microsatellite instability-based testing (with or without MLH1 promoter methylation testing) for Lynch syndrome in women with endometrial cancer. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review of literature published up to August 2019. We searched bibliographic databases, contacted experts and checked reference lists of relevant studies. Two reviewers conducted each stage of the review. RESULTS: Thirteen studies were identified that included approximately 3500 participants. None of the studies was at low risk of bias in all domains. Data could not be pooled due to the small number of heterogeneous studies. Sensitivity ranged from 60.7-100% for immunohistochemistry, 41.7-100% for microsatellite instability-based testing, and 90.5-100% for studies combining immunohistochemistry, microsatellite instability-based testing, and MLH1 promoter methylation testing. Specificity ranged from 60.9-83.3% (excluding 1 study with highly selective inclusion criteria) for immunohistochemistry, 69.2-89.9% for microsatellite instability-based testing, and 72.4-92.3% (excluding 1 study with highly selective inclusion criteria) for testing strategies that included immunohistochemistry, microsatellite instability-based testing, and MLH1 promoter methylation. We found no statistically significant differences in test accuracy estimates (sensitivity, specificity) in head-to-head studies of immunohistochemistry versus microsatellite instability-based testing. Reported test failures were rare. CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivity of the index tests were generally high, though most studies had much lower specificity. We found no evidence that test accuracy differed between IHC and MSI based strategies. The evidence base is currently small and at high risk of bias.

Rapid antigen detection and molecular tests for group A streptococcal infections for acute sore throat: systematic reviews and economic evaluation.

BACKGROUND: Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are of a viral nature; however, a number of these infections may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks. Point-of-care testing in primary care has been recognised as an emerging technology for aiding targeted antibiotic prescribing for sore throat in cases that do not spontaneously resolve. OBJECTIVE: Systematically review the evidence for 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria and develop a de novo economic model to compare the cost-effectiveness of point-of-care tests alongside clinical scoring tools with the cost-effectiveness of clinical scoring tools alone for patients managed in primary care and hospital settings. DATA SOURCES: Multiple electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2019. The following databases were searched in November and December 2018 and searches were updated in March 2019: MEDLINE [via OvidSP (Health First, Rockledge, FL, USA)], MEDLINE In-Process & Other Non-Indexed Citations (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Epub Ahead of Print (via OvidSP), MEDLINE Daily Update (via OvidSP), EMBASE (via OvidSP), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews [via Wiley Online Library (John Wiley & Sons, Inc., Hoboken, NJ, USA)], Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL) (via Wiley Online Library), Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effects (DARE) (via Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Health Technology Assessment database (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination), Science Citation Index and Conference Proceedings [via the Web of Science™ (Clarivate Analytics, Philadelphia, PA, USA)] and the PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (via the Centre for Reviews and Dissemination). REVIEW METHODS: Eligible studies included those of people aged ≥ 5 years presenting with sore throat symptoms, studies comparing point-of-care testing with antibiotic-prescribing decisions, studies of test accuracy and studies of cost-effectiveness. Quality assessment of eligible studies was undertaken. Meta-analysis of sensitivity and specificity was carried out for tests with sufficient data. A decision tree model estimated costs and quality-adjusted life-years from an NHS and Personal Social Services perspective. RESULTS: The searches identified 38 studies of clinical effectiveness and three studies of cost-effectiveness. Twenty-six full-text articles and abstracts reported on the test accuracy of point-of-care tests and/or clinical scores with biological culture as a reference standard. In the population of interest (patients with Centor/McIsaac scores of ≥ 3 points or FeverPAIN scores of ≥ 4 points), point estimates were 0.829 to 0.946 for sensitivity and 0.849 to 0.991 for specificity. There was considerable heterogeneity, even for studies using the same point-of-care test, suggesting that is unlikely that any single study will have accurately captured a test's true performance. There is some randomised controlled trial evidence to suggest that the use of rapid antigen detection tests may help to reduce antibiotic-prescribing rates. Sensitivity and specificity estimates for each test in each age group and care setting combination were obtained using meta-analyses where appropriate. Any apparent differences in test accuracy may not be attributable to the tests, and may have been caused by known differences in the studies, latent characteristics or chance. Fourteen of the 21 tests reviewed were included in the economic modelling, and these tests were not cost-effective within the current National Institute for Health and Care Excellence's cost-effectiveness thresholds. Uncertainties in the cost-effectiveness estimates included model parameter inputs and assumptions that increase the cost of testing, and the penalty for antibiotic overprescriptions. LIMITATIONS: No information was identified for the elderly population or pharmacy setting. It was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate owing to the paucity of evidence. CONCLUSIONS: The systematic review and the cost-effectiveness models identified uncertainties around the adoption of point-of-care tests in primary and secondary care settings. Although sensitivity and specificity estimates are promising, we have little information to establish the most accurate point-of-care test. Further research is needed to understand the test accuracy of point-of-care tests in the proposed NHS pathway and in comparable settings and patient groups. STUDY REGISTRATION: The protocol of the review is registered as PROSPERO CRD42018118653. FUNDING: This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 31. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Sore throat is a common condition caused by an infection of the airway. Most cases are viral; however, a small number may be caused by the group A Streptococcus bacterium. Most viral and bacterial sore throat infections resolve spontaneously within a few weeks; however, some may be more serious and require antibiotics. Currently, National Institute for Health and Care Excellence guidance recommends the use of clinical scoring tools to identify patients for whom antibiotic treatment is appropriate. Ideally, a throat swab culture should be obtained to identify the organism causing the infection in cases in which diagnosis is uncertain. However, this takes time, causing potential delays in administering the correct treatment. Point-of-care tests can be administered at or near the site of the patient; therefore, they are much faster. Our review considered evidence for the test accuracy and cost-effectiveness of 21 point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria. We built an economic model, predicting costs and benefits for adults and children in a primary care or hospital setting. The findings will support the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence to make recommendations about the use of these point-of-care tests for detecting group A Streptococcus bacteria in the NHS in England and Wales. The clinical effectiveness review found 38 relevant studies; of these, 26 reported on the accuracy of point-of-care tests. These studies found wide variation in the accuracy of the tests. The quality of the evidence was weak and there was little information on some of the 21 tests. As the studies were all so different, it was not possible to identify which test is the most accurate. The economic model found considerable uncertainty about how costs and benefits would change if point-of-care tests were introduced in different care settings. Further research is needed to see whether or not point-of-care testing provides value for money.

The use of electronic healthcare records for colorectal cancer screening referral decisions and risk prediction model development.

BACKGROUND: The database used for the NHS Bowel Cancer Screening Programme (BCSP) derives participant information from primary care records. Combining predictors with FOBTs has shown to improve referral decisions and accuracy. The richer data available from GP databases could be used to complement screening referral decisions by identifying those at greatest risk of colorectal cancer. We determined the availability of data for key predictors and whether this information could be used to inform more accurate screening referral decisions. METHODS: An English BCSP cohort was derived using the electronic notifications received from the BCSP database to GP records. The cohort covered a period between 13th May 2009 to 17th January 2017. Completeness of variables and univariable associations were assessed. Risk prediction models were developed using Cox regression and multivariable fractional polynomials with backwards elimination. Optimism adjusted performance metrics were reported. The sensitivity and specificity of a combined approach using the negative FOBT model plus FOBT positive patients was determined using a probability equivalent to a 3% PPV NICE guidelines level. RESULTS: 292,059 participants aged 60-74 were derived for the BCSP screening cohort. A model including the screening test result had a C-statistic of 0.860, c-slope of 0.997, and R2 of 0.597. A model developed for negative screening results only had a C-statistic of 0.597, c-slope of 0.940, and R2 of 0.062. Risk predictors included in the models included; age, sex, alcohol consumption, IBS diagnosis, family history of gastrointestinal cancer, smoking status, previous negatives and whether a GP had ordered a blood test. For the combined screening approach, sensitivity increased slightly from 53.90% (FOBT only) to 58.82% but at the expense of an increased referral rate. CONCLUSIONS: This research has identified several potential predictors for CRC in a BCSP population. A risk prediction model developed for BCSP FOBT negative patients was not clinically useful due to a low sensitivity and increased referral rate. The predictors identified in this study should be investigated in a refined algorithm combining the quantitative FIT result. Combining data from multiple sources enables fuller patient profiles using the primary care and screening database interface.

Double reading in breast cancer screening: considerations for policy-making.

In this article, we explore the evidence around the relative benefits and harms of breast cancer screening using a single radiologist to examine each female's mammograms for signs of cancer (single reading), or two radiologists (double reading). First, we briefly explore the historical evidence using film-screen mammography, before providing an in-depth description of evidence using digital mammography. We classify studies according to which exact version of double reading they use, because the evidence suggests that effectiveness of double reading is contingent on whether the two radiologists are blinded to one another's decisions, and how the decisions of the two radiologists are integrated. Finally, we explore the implications for future mammography, including using artificial intelligence as the second reader, and applications to more complex three-dimensional imaging techniques such as tomosynthesis.

Antenatal screening for fetal trisomies using microarray-based cell-free DNA testing: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the test accuracy of non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) for fetal trisomy 21, 18, and 13 using cell-free (cf) DNA analysis in maternal plasma with microarray quantitation. METHOD: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Searches in MEDLINE, Pre-MEDLINE, EMBASE, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Library to 09.07.2018. RESULTS: Five studies analyzing 3074 samples, including 187 trisomy 21, 43 trisomy 18, and 19 trisomy 13 cases, were identified. Risk of bias was high in all studies, introduced particularly by exclusions from analysis and by the role of the sponsor. Sensitivity of microarray-based cfDNA testing was 99.5% (95%CI 96.3%-99.9%) for trisomy 21, 97.7% (95%CI 87.9%-99.6%) for trisomy 18, and 100% (95%CI 83.2%-100%) for trisomy 13. Specificity was 100% (95% CI 99.87%-100%) for trisomy 21, 99.97% (95%CI 99.81%-99.99%) for trisomy 18, and 99.97% (95%CI 99.81%-99.99%) for trisomy 13. Pooled test failure rate was 1.1%. A direct comparison of microarray- and sequencing-based cfDNA found equivalent test accuracy. CONCLUSION: Included studies suggest that NIPT using microarray-based cfDNA testing has high sensitivity and specificity for detecting fetal trisomy 21, 18, and 13. However, the evidence base is small and at high risk of bias.

Evaluation of earlier versus later dietary management in long-chain 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase or mitochondrial trifunctional protein deficiency: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial trifunctional protein (MTP) and long-chain 3-hydroxyacyl-CoA dehydrogenase (LCHAD) deficiencies are rare fatty acid ß-oxidation disorders. Without dietary management the conditions are life-threatening. We conducted a systematic review to investigate whether pre-symptomatic dietary management following newborn screening provides better outcomes than treatment following symptomatic detection. METHODS: We searched Web of Science, Medline, Pre-Medline, Embase and the Cochrane Library up to 23rd April 2018. Two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts and full texts for eligibility and quality appraised the studies. Data extraction was performed by one reviewer and checked by another. RESULTS: We included 13 articles out of 7483 unique records. The 13 articles reported on 11 patient groups, including 174 people with LCHAD deficiency, 18 people with MTP deficiency and 12 people with undifferentiated LCHAD/MTP deficiency. Study quality was moderate to weak in all studies. Included studies suggested fewer heart and liver problems in screen-detected patients, but inconsistent results for mortality. Follow up analyses compared long-term outcomes of (1) pre-symptomatically versus symptomatically treated patients, (2) screened versus unscreened patients, and (3) asymptomatic screen-detected, symptomatic screen-detected, and clinically diagnosed patients in each study. For follow up analyses 1 and 2, we found few statistically significant differences in the long-term outcomes. For follow up analysis 3 we found a significant difference for only one comparison, in the incidence of cardiomyopathy between the three groups. CONCLUSIONS: There is some evidence that dietary management following screen-detection might be associated with a lower incidence of some LCHAD and MTP deficiency-related complications. However, the evidence base is limited by small study sizes, quality issues and risk of confounding. An internationally collaborative research effort is needed to fully examine the risks and the benefits to pre-emptive dietary management with particular attention paid to disease severity and treatment group.

Lifespan trajectory of affect in Cornelia de Lange syndrome: towards a neurobiological hypothesis.

BACKGROUND: Depressive symptomology and low affect are comparatively common in individuals with genetic disorders such as Cornelia de Lange syndrome. However, lifespan trajectories and associated person characteristics have not been examined. In this study, the trajectories for affect and associated behavioural characteristics were investigated in individuals with Cornelia de Lange syndrome with individuals with fragile X syndrome (FXS) comparable for chronological age and total number of behavioural indicators of ASD included for the purpose of contrast. METHODS: A 7-year longitudinal study of affect (mood, interest and pleasure) was conducted in individuals with CdLS (n = 44) and FXS (n = 95). The trajectories of low affect were explored, as well as associations between Time 1 behavioural characteristics and affect at Time 1 and Time 3 (7 years later). RESULTS: The CdLS group were lower in mood than the FXS group overall (p < .001). Interest and pleasure scores showed a significant decline over the lifespan for individuals with CdLS (p < .001) but not the FXS group. Lower level of ability at Time 1 was associated with lower mood at Time 1 and Time 3 in the FXS group only. Higher levels of ASD symptomology at Time 1 were associated with low mood and interest and pleasure in both syndrome groups at Time 1 and Time 3. Greater insistence on sameness at Time 1 was associated with lower mood at Time 1 in the FXS group and lower interest and pleasure at Time 1 and Time 3 in the CdLS group. CONCLUSIONS: Low affect in specific genetic syndromes may be associated with differing lifespan trajectories and behavioural profiles. Specifically, individuals with CdLS appear at risk for experiencing declines in levels of interest and pleasure whereas individuals with FXS show no significant change in the level of affect with age.

Fatigue in radiology: a fertile area for future research.

Fatigue in radiologists may be responsible for a large number of medical errors. This review describes the latest research on fatigue in radiology. This includes measurement methods, and recent evidence on how fatigue affects accuracy in laboratory test conditions and in clinical practice. The extensive opportunities for future research in the area are explored, including testing interventions to reduce fatigue-related error, and further understanding of which fatigue measures correlate with errors. Finally we explore the possibility of answering these questions using large population-based observational studies and pragmatic integrated randomised controlled trials.

Using Bayesian methodology to explore the profile of mental health and well-being in 646 mothers of children with 13 rare genetic syndromes in relation to mothers of children with autism.

BACKGROUND: It is well documented that mothers of children with intellectual disabilities or autism experience elevated stress, with mental health compromised. However, comparatively little is known about mothers of children with rare genetic syndromes. This study describes mental health and well-being in mothers of children with 13 rare genetic syndromes and contrasts the results with mothers of children with autism. METHODS: Mothers of children with 13 genetic syndromes (n = 646; Angelman, Cornelia de Lange, Down, Fragile-X, Phelan McDermid, Prader-Willi, Rett, Rubenstein Taybi, Smith Magenis, Soto, Tuberous Sclerosis Complex, 1p36 deletion and 8p23 deletion syndromes) and mothers of children with autism (n = 66) completed measures of positive mental health, stress and depression. Using Bayesian methodology, the influence of syndrome, child ability, and mother and child age were explored in relation to each outcome. Bayesian Model Averaging was used to explore maternal depression, positive gain and positive affect, and maternal stress was tested using an ordinal probit regression model. RESULTS: Different child and mother factors influenced different aspects of mental well-being, and critically, the importance of these factors differed between syndromes. Maternal depression was influenced by child ability in only four syndromes, with the other syndromes reporting elevated or lower levels of maternal depression regardless of child factors. Maternal stress showed a more complex pattern of interaction with child ability, and for some groups, child age. Within positive mental health, mother and child age were more influential than child ability. Some syndromes reported comparable levels of depression (SMS, 1p36, CdLS) and stress (SMS, AS) to mothers of children with autism. CONCLUSIONS: Bayesian methodology was used in a novel manner to explore factors that explain variability in mental health amongst mothers of children with rare genetic disorders. Significant proportions of mothers of children with specific genetic syndromes experienced levels of depression and stress similar to those reported by mothers of children with autism. Identifying such high-risk mothers allows for potential early intervention and the implementation of support structures.

Association between use of systematic reviews and national policy recommendations on screening newborn babies for rare diseases: systematic review and meta-analysis.

OBJECTIVE: To understand whether international differences in recommendations of whether to screen for rare diseases using the newborn blood spot test might in part be explained by use of systematic review methods. DESIGN: Systematic review and meta-analysis. DATA SOURCES: Website searches of 26 national screening organisations. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA FOR STUDY SELECTION: Journal articles, papers, legal documents, presentations, conference abstracts, or reports relating to a national recommendation on whether to screen for any condition using the newborn blood spot test, with no restrictions on date or language. DATA EXTRACTION: Two reviewers independently assessed whether the recommendation for or against screening included systematic reviews, and data on test accuracy, benefits of early detection, and potential harms of overdiagnosis. ANALYSIS: The odds of recommending screening according to the use of systematic review methods was estimated across conditions using meta-analysis. RESULTS: 93 reports were included that assessed 104 conditions across 14 countries, totalling 276 recommendations (units of analysis). Screening was favoured in 159 (58%) recommendations, not favoured in 98 (36%), and not recommended either way in 19 (7%). Only 60 (22%) of the recommendations included a systematic review. Use of a systematic review was associated with a reduced probability of screening being recommended (23/60 (38%) v 136/216 (63%), odds ratio 0.17, 95% confidence interval 0.07 to 0.43). Of the recommendations, evidence for test accuracy, benefits of early detection, and overdiagnosis was not considered in 115 (42%), 83 (30%), and 211 (76%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Using systematic review methods is associated with a reduced probability of screening being recommended. Many national policy reviews of screening for rare conditions using the newborn blood spot test do not assess the evidence on the key benefits and harms of screening.

Double Reading in Breast Cancer Screening: Cohort Evaluation in the CO-OPS Trial.

Purpose To investigate the effect of double readings by a second radiologist on recall rates, cancer detection, and characteristics of cancers detected in the National Health Service Breast Screening Program in England. Materials and Methods In this retrospective analysis, 805 206 women were evaluated through screening and diagnostic test results by extracting 1 year of routine data from 33 English breast screening centers. Centers used double reading of digital mammograms, with arbitration if there were discrepant interpretations. Information on reader decisions, with results of follow-up tests, were used to explore the effect of the second reader. The statistical tests used were the test for equality of proportions, the χ2 test for independence, and the t test. Results The first reader recalled 4.76% of women (38 295 of 805 206 women; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 4.71%, 4.80%). Two readers recalled 6.19% of women in total (49 857 of 805 206 women; 95% CI: 6.14%, 6.24%), but arbitration of discordant readings reduced the recall rate to 4.08% (32 863 of 805 206 women; 95% CI: 4.04%, 4.12%; P < .001). A total of 7055 cancers were detected, of which 627 (8.89%; 95% CI: 8.22%, 9.55%; P < .001) were detected by the second reader only. These additional cancers were more likely to be ductal carcinoma in situ (30.5% [183 of 600] vs 22.0% [1344 of 6114]; P < .001), and additional invasive cancers were smaller (mean size, 14.2 vs 16.7 mm; P < .001), had fewer involved nodes, and were likely to be lower grade. Conclusion Double reading with arbitration reduces recall and increases cancer detection compared with single reading. Cancers detected only by the second reader were smaller, of lower grade, and had less nodal involvement. © RSNA, 2018.

Bacterial Load and Molecular Markers Associated With Early-onset Group B Streptococcus: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: The natural history of neonatal group B Streptococcus (GBS) is poorly understood. Little is known about the bacterial factors influencing the transmission of GBS from mother to neonate, or the development of invasive early-onset GBS disease (EOGBS) in colonized neonates. We reviewed whether bacterial load and molecular markers are associated with GBS vertical transmission and progression to EOGBS. METHODS: We searched Medline, Embase, Cochrane and Web of Science from inception to October 10, 2016, for observational studies in English. We also hand-searched reference lists of relevant publications and experts cross-checked included studies. Two reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data and appraised the quality of included studies using the Quality in Prognosis Studies tool. We conducted random-effects meta-analyses where possible and narratively synthesized the evidence in text and tables. RESULTS: Seventeen studies were included from 1107 records retrieved from electronic databases and publication references. Meta-analyses of 3 studies showed that neonates colonized by serotype III had a higher risk of developing EOGBS than serotype Ia (pooled risk ratio: 1.51, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-2.03) and serotype II (risk ratio: 1.95, 95% confidence interval: 1.10-3.45). Eleven studies showed that in heavily colonized mothers, 2-3 times more neonates were colonized, and in heavily colonized neonates, up to 15 times more neonates had EOGBS, compared with light colonization. Most evidence was published before 2000 and was at risk of bias. CONCLUSIONS: Acknowledging the difficulty of natural history studies, well-controlled studies are needed to assess the predictive value of pathogen subtype and heavy load; they may be useful for better-targeted prevention.

Risk-adjusted colorectal cancer screening using the FIT and routine screening data: development of a risk prediction model.

BACKGROUND: The faecal immunochemical test (FIT) is replacing the guaiac faecal occult blood test in colorectal cancer screening. Increased uptake and FIT positivity will challenge colonoscopy services. We developed a risk prediction model combining routine screening data with FIT concentration to improve the accuracy of screening referrals. METHODS: Multivariate analysis used complete cases of those with a positive FIT (⩾20 µg g-1) and diagnostic outcome (n=1810; 549 cancers and advanced adenomas). Logistic regression was used to develop a risk prediction model using the FIT result and screening data: age, sex and previous screening history. The model was developed further using a feedforward neural network. Model performance was assessed by discrimination and calibration, and test accuracy was investigated using clinical sensitivity, specificity and receiver operating characteristic curves. RESULTS: Discrimination improved from 0.628 with just FIT to 0.659 with the risk-adjusted model (P=0.01). Calibration using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test was 0.90 for the risk-adjusted model. The sensitivity improved from 30.78% to 33.15% at similar specificity (FIT threshold of 160 µg g-1). The neural network further improved model performance and test accuracy. CONCLUSIONS: Combining routinely available risk predictors with the FIT improves the clinical sensitivity of the FIT with an increase in the diagnostic yield of high-risk adenomas.

Evaluation of pre-symptomatic nitisinone treatment on long-term outcomes in Tyrosinemia type 1 patients: a systematic review.

BACKGROUND: Tyrosinemia type 1 (TYR1) is a rare autosomal recessive disorder of amino acid metabolism that is fatal without treatment. With medication (nitisinone) and dietary restrictions outcomes are improved. We conducted a systematic review to investigate if treatment with nitisinone following screening provides better long-term outcomes than treatment with nitisinone following symptomatic detection. METHODS: We searched Web of Science, Medline, Pre-Medline, and Embase up to 23rd September 2016 for journal articles comparing clinical outcomes of TYR1 patients receiving earlier versus later nitisinone treatment. Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts, assessed full texts, and appraised study quality. Data extraction was performed by a single reviewer and checked by a second. RESULTS: We included seven articles out of 470 unique records identified by our search. The seven articles included four studies (three cohort studies and one cross-sectional study). Study sample sizes ranged from 17 to 148. There is consistent evidence that nitisinone is an effective treatment for TYR1, and some evidence that earlier treatment with nitisinone and dietary restrictions within the first one or 2 months of life is associated with reduced need for liver transplantation, lower rates of renal dysfunction, fewer neurological crises, and fewer, shorter hospital admissions compared to later treatment. However, study quality was moderate to weak, with high risk of confounding and applicability concerns to the screening context. We conducted post hoc analyses to address these issues. Results suggested an association between earlier treatment and fewer liver transplants (earlier treatment: 0% of 10-24 patients; later treatment: 25-60% of 4-15 patients), but no impact on neurological crises. We found no effect of treatment timing on mortality in either the primary or post hoc analyses. Post hoc analyses of other health-related outcomes were not possible because of sample size or reporting. CONCLUSIONS: There is some evidence from observational studies that earlier treatment with nitisinone might be beneficial but this is subject to bias. The applicability of our findings to the screening context or clinical practice is limited as not all early-treated patients were identified by screening and late-treated groups included patients born prior to the availability of nitisinone.